Lowess smoothing (red line, 1 year window) highlights variability between years and the huge rise that has occurred recently, which is partly caused by variability such as associated with El Niño.
The red line also highlights the potential for an even larger rise to come soon, as feedbacks and further developments start to kick in with greater ferocity, contributing to non-linear and abrupt temperature rise, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one and this one.
The use of an early date for a pre-industrial base is discussed at the pre-industrial page and is supported by recent analysis of sponges collected in the Caribbean, illustrated by the image below.
Other
recent research debunks the idea that Earth’s surface (across land and sea) has experienced really hot temperatures over the last two billion years. Instead, it shows that Earth has had a relatively stable and mild climate. This makes the threat of a huge temperature rise over the next few years even more menacing.
The temperature is rising most rapidly in the Arctic. Loss of sea ice threatens to accelerate the temperature rise in the Arctic even more, and cause destabilization of methane hydrates at the bottom of the Arctic Ocean and thawing of permafrost on land, resulting in massive releases of greenhouse gases, further acceleration of the temperature rise and widespread extinction of species (including humans) as early as in the year 2026. Clouds Tipping Point
The image below illustrates that a polynomial trend (red) can better capture the acceleration in the rise in CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere than a linear trend (blue).
The red polynomial trend also illustrates how rising CO₂ can cause the
clouds tipping point at 1200 ppm to be crossed before 2100, i.e. earlier than anticipated in IPCC models (inset).
Moreover, the clouds tipping point could be crossed much earlier when also taking into account methane. Monthly methane was about 1960 parts per billion (ppb) recently at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, as illustrated by the image below.
A methane concentration of 1960 ppb corresponds, at a
Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 200, with a carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) of 392 ppm. Together with the above daily average CO₂ concentration of 427.93 ppm this adds up to a joint CO₂e of 819.93 ppm, i.e. only 380.07 ppm away from the
clouds tipping point (at 1200 ppm CO₂e) that on its own could raise the global temperature by 8°C.
This 380.07 ppm CO₂e could be added almost immediately by a burst of seafloor methane less than the size of the methane that is currently in the atmosphere (about 5 Gt). There is plenty of potential for such an abrupt release, given the rising ocean heat and the vast amounts of methane present in vulnerable sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in earlier posts such as
this one.
Furthermore, nitrous oxide is also rising and there are additional elements that could further speed up the temperatures rise, as discussed at the
Extinction page, which shows that, altogether, there is the potential for a temperature rise of well over 18°C by 2026.
A 2018 study (by
Strona & Bradshaw) indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. Humans, who depend for their survival on many other species, will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise, as illustrated by the image below, from an
earlier post.
Environmental crimes
The accelerating growth in carbon dioxide indicates that politicians have failed and are failing to take adequate action.
Current laws punish people for the most trivial things, while leaving the largest crime one can imagine unpunished: planetary omnicide!
If we accept that crimes against humanity include climate crimes, then politicians who inadequately act on the unfolding climate catastrophe are committing crimes against humanity and they should be brought before the International Criminal Court in The Hague, the Netherlands.
Meanwhile,
Belgium has recognised ecocide as international crime and the
EU Parliament has voted to criminalize the most serious cases of ecosystem destruction.
The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in
this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at
this group.
Links
• NOAA - greenhouse gases at Mauna Loa
• Belgium becomes first in EU to recognise ecocide as international crime
• ‘Revolutionary’: EU Parliament votes to criminalise most serious cases of ecosystem destruction
• How long do we have?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/04/how-long-do-we-have.html
• Blue Ocean Event 2024?
• Potential temperature trends
• Co-extinctions annihilate planetary life during extreme environmental change, by Giovanni Strona and Corey Bradshaw (2018)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-35068-1
• NASA GISTEMP - Temperature analysis Plots
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html• Tragedy set to unfold in tropics
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/02/tragedy-set-to-unfold-in-tropics.html• 300 years of sclerosponge thermometry shows global warming has exceeded 1.5 °C - by Malcolm McCulloch et al. (2024)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01919-7
